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Tipico One-Play Payday

Tipico One-Play Payday

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Welcome to a Monday edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday”, we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.

Tipico Sportsbook lines

We have an eight-game Monday slate to start the week, here are all the lines on Tipico Sportsbook.

  • Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards -3.5, 245.5
  • Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons -1.5, 210.5
  • Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans -3.5, 237.5
  • Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks -2.5, 235.5
  • Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 @ Chicago Bulls, 211.5
  • New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies -3.5, 219.5
  • San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz -7.5, 220.5
  • Denver Nuggets -3.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers, 214.5

Today's Tipico Sportsbook picks

For today’s Tipico One-Play Payday, I am looking to attack the Denver Nuggets on the road against a Lakers team on a second of a back-to-back.

There is value in both the spread at -3.5 and the moneyline of -170 for the Denver Nuggets today. This Lakers team is coming off of a blowout loss last night in which we saw LeBron James leave the game early because of ankle soreness. LeBron is not seriously injured, but is coming off of a serious ankle injury. Anthony David is also coming off a serious injury, and we know through his careers teams have treated Davis very conservatively when returning from injuries. 

Considering the back-to-back and the fact this game has no meaning to the Lakers' ultimate goal of winning another championship, I do not expect LeBron James and Anthony Davis to both play. I would also not be surprised if both players were eventually scratched for this game, but at the moment, I do not think LeBron James will play. If LeBron does not play, this spread will ultimately be -6.5 or even higher. If both LeBron and Davis do not play, this spread will come close to -10. Per the FTNBets NBA Splits tool, in games LeBron James has not played in, the Lakers' net rating decreased from 6.14 to 1.98 while their plus/minutes goes from 6.25 to 1.25. Their offense rating decreases by 3.04 while their defensive rating increases (this is regression) to 105.55. It’s no surprise that the Lakers regress as a team without LeBron James, and this line does not take account for the decent likelihood we don’t see LeBron play tonight.

At the tail end of the NBA season, this is when we have to predict rests if we are trying to chase closing line value, the Nuggets -3.5 is the best way of doing so tonight. Even if LeBron James and Anthony Davis both play, I would not expect a full minutes load from either player, which adds some safety to this bet. 

To recap, today’s Tipico One-Play Payday is the Denver Nuggets -3.5 against the Los Angeles Lakers.

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