MLB 5/4/21 Preview
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It’s a good day of baseball for the New York teams if you are betting on Tipico Sportsbook in the garden state Tuesday. The Yankees are at home and the Mets are on the road in St. Louis, and both teams are favored. The similarities between the two matchups pretty much end there, though. The Mets are throwing ace Jacob deGrom, making the team a -200 favorite and the number is dropping. He has been lights out but owns just a 2-2 record on the season. That game has a super low total of only 6.5 runs. The Yankees have a tougher game despite being at home; they face the Astros in a matchup of Zack Greinke and Domingo German. The Yankees are clocking in as the favorite at -125 and the run total in nine.
Let’s take a look at the Mets game first. It’s deGrom, so don’t overthink this. He should be a -300 favorite. I understand it has not worked out for bettors so far, but keep the faith. He’s numbers absolutely sparkle this year. He has an ERA of 0.51 with an xFIP of 1.39. Any time you see an ERA that low, the tendency is to expect some regression, but even the xFIP is absurdly low, suggesting that even if deGrom sees some regression, it won’t be much. He has a WHIP of just 0.57 this year — the guy has pitched to a sub-1.00 WHIP since 2018, which was his best full season at 0.91. He’s averaging over 15 strikeouts per 9 innings this year. As crazy as that sounds, he did end 2020 with 13.76 Ks per 9, so it’s not far off. Obviously though, the run support has been garbage. The young righty the Cardinals are throwing is Johan Oviedo. He got his first taste of the majors in 2020 and was not very good. He started off hot this year in one start and one relief appearance. He’s young so you can expect improvement with some time under his belt. I do not expect the Mets to tee off on him, but they may only need a couple runs to be safe with deGrom on the mound. Pitchers of his caliber routinely see numbers bigger than -200, so I feel like this is a bit of an overreaction to his lack of run support so far.
The Yankees taking on the Astros in the other game is an interesting one. You have two good right-handed pitchers on the mound, but also two teams have historically hit righties pretty well. Houston still does this year with a 110 wRC+, but the Yankees bats are really struggling. They are down below league average with just a 96 wRC+. I know it’s still somewhat early in the season, but as Yankee legend Yogi Berra would say, it’s getting late early. Even the pitching matchup here looks to favor the Astros. Greinke is getting older, but he looks to be a rare vintage. He has an ERA under 3.50 and a xFIP of 4.18. His WHIP for his career is 1.16, and it’s 1.15 this year. I hate to say this fellow Yankees fans, but have some caution with them Tuesday. The hitting and pitching advantages are coming up for the Astros. I know the Yankees have home-field advantage, but that by itself is not enough to justify laying -120. I would rather be on the side of taking plus money on the underdog Astros here.
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