Preview: Valspar Championship
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The PGA Tour returns to Florida for this week's Valspar Championship, which will take place at Innisbrook Resort on their copperhead course. This track has become notorious for being one of the toughest tests on the PGA Tour every season, with the course offering up more bogeys than birdies. Copperhead is not a course that many golfers run away from the field and I think we can try and use that to our advantage this week with a prop that is being offered by Tipico!
Winning Margin 1 Stroke +250
As I just mentioned, it's historically been harder for golfers to pull away from the field at this tournament due to the difficulty of the course and how it forces much of the field to play it similarly. Sure, we have seen golfers win by a couple large margins in the past, but 11 of the 19 tournaments here have been within 1 stroke/playoff. I saw similar results in the simulations I ran for the event and believe there is some solid value being offered this week for this wager at +250.
Ian Poulter Top 20 +425
Looking back through his history, I would have expected Poulter to have played slightly better at this course. His game should suit, considering it's a club-down course with more emphasis on accuracy, irons and some touch around the greens. The results haven't quite been there for Poulter of late, but I believe the fit is still there and in my simulations, I gave him close to a 3% better chance of making the T20 than the market. His short game should come in handy this week and if he can stay out of trouble off the tee, he has a great opportunity to snag his best finish of the 2021 season.
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