When it comes to how to bet on baseball, there are as few certainties as there are pitchers who’ve pitched perfect games (23, that is). If you want to be on the sharp side of every play, you need to take a more active role in the betting process with a proven system.
The best sports bettor knows that implementing a sound, tested, and proven betting system can make all the difference between going broke, breaking even, and winning more money. The good news is, you don’t have to make your system up as you go along.
To that end, here’s everything you need to know about the five best MLB baseball betting systems.
#1 Betting Against the Public
The beautiful thing about sports betting is its universality. Seasoned pros play the game along with amateur and even brand-new bettors. However, while there’s room for everyone, your average Joe is probably not the most knowledgeable when it comes to baseball betting.
Without a thorough understanding of how baseball sports betting works, they let their wallet be guided by things like:
- Team popularity
- Recent performance
- Personal sentiment
But sportsbooks know how big swaths of the public are likely to vote and may adjust their baseball betting lines to reflect that. Since the odds are stacked with the public’s favorite, that means a higher risk—but a greater return. Even just a small bet against the public can yield exponential payback if the game turns in your favor.
Basically, betting against the public can earn you bigger profits for less money.
#2 Support Bad Teams After a Win
It’s America’s favorite story—the underdog baseball team, bearing the scars of their past losses, comes out of nowhere with a sensational win. It’s not just a classic tale; it’s also a savvy baseball betting strategy.
Bad teams are undervalued because people don’t expect them to win. And on the rare occasion that they do win, no one expects them to keep winning. As a result, a sports bettor is more likely to put their money behind the opposing team, leaving you to reap the benefits of supporting the underdog.
#3 Go Under On Winning Teams
When two stellar teams go head-to-head, it can be difficult to decide who to bet on. But why choose?
Instead, opt for over/under betting on the game. In over/under betting, you bet according to whether you think the total score of a game will be over or under a certain number of runs. This is contrary to other popular MLB betting methods like:
- Moneyline betting
- Run line better
When teams seem equally matched, you should bet under. It all ties back to how the uninformed public bets. If you have two sharp teams, casual bettors—not to mention fans—are going to expect to see a lot of runs batted in, meaning they’re more likely to toss their bets in the “over” column. Sportsbooks know this and use it to their advantage by hiking up the total number of runs.
Voting under that total is basically aligning yourself with the house. As the saying goes, the house always wins.
#4 Run lines Against Favorites
In run line betting, you decide whether you think a certain team will win by a given number of runs. Usually, the run line is set at 1.5, which means that the winning team has to win by at least two runs.
That said, if sportsbooks have a ton of bets coming in on the favored team, they’re likely to inflate the line, for instance, to 3.5. Unless you beat the closing line and get in while the total is low, betting on the favorite means sacrificing points and losing profit, even if they win.
On the other hand, betting on the underdog can help take advantage of that hike. When the average number of runs for an MLB game is only about 5, it’s easy to see how a higher run line makes it difficult for teams to measure up—and how betting in favor of the underdog can spell a win.
#5 Wind Blowing In
The sport of baseball takes place outside, which leaves it open to a number of environmental conditions that can, for better or worse, affect who wins the game. The biggest variable in the game? Wind.
Think about it: the average MLB baseball only weighs about five ounces, which means even moderate winds can take a perfect pitch and knock it off course.
Wind can seriously disrupt a baseball game by:
- Turning outfield hits into home runs
- Wobbling the throws of seasoned pitchers
- Slow down players while they run
If it’s windy at the ballpark, it’s usually a good idea to take shelter and bet under.
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