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The Best MLB Betting Strategies

October 4, 2023

The 2023 baseball season is upon us. On March 30th, the season kicked off with showdowns between the Giants and Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox, Brewers and Cubs, and Braves and Nationals, among others.

The race to the World Series starts now.

But before you start betting on these games, you need to carefully plan out your MLB betting strategy for the 23 seasons. The world of baseball is complex and unpredictable, with a 162-game season and 30 teams to keep track of. Whether you’re new to the game or a seasoned sharp, laying the groundwork now will ensure that you make informed decisions throughout the year, ultimately maximizing your chances of winning.

So, read on as we discuss three fundamental MLB betting strategies.

1. Bankroll Management Is Key

The best MLB betting strategy is this: treat gambling as a slow grind, not a get-rich-quick scheme.

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You must be cautious and meticulous in your approach. You need to set rules and standards. Cold analysis should dictate your betting behavior, not emotions; otherwise, it’s all too easy to lose everything chasing losses.

In other words, you must practice diligent bankroll management.

Your bankroll is the allotted budget for the season. This should be a monetary figure you can afford to lose without it affecting your mental health and normal bills and expenses. In this scenario, let’s say your bankroll is $5,000.

To ensure that you have a standardized approach and maximize your available budget, you’ll then divide the bankroll into units. 2% is the standard bet unit sizing, although depending on the bettor’s risk tolerance, a unit could range from 1% to 5%.

From there, you can tailor your unit sizing to your total bankroll. For instance, if it shrinks or increases by 25% over the course of the season, you can adjust accordingly.

So, in this example, your unit size would be $100 per bet. Naturally, there will be wins and losses. Ultimately, there’s no one-size-fits-all method for bankroll management. It will depend on your betting style, volume, risk tolerance, and edge. But if you stick to a disciplined bankroll management system, you can maximize your opportunities.

2. Embrace Volume Betting

To be profitable, a baseball bettor must win or cover bets at least 52.4% of the time. This figure is calculated using the following formula, on the premise that the house will typically require a player to bet at least 1.10x to win x:

Expected (Bookmaker Profit) = (2 + v)(f + p — 2pf) — 1

p = probability that a favorite wins a particular game

f = fraction of total currency wagered on the favorite out of total currency wagered on the game

v = vig or commission levied by sportsbooks, which is paid only on losing bets.

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To that end, instead of swinging for the fences and betting your entire bankroll on a few moon shots, bettors would be wise to spread out their bets as much as possible across a large number of games. This is especially true with baseball, which has a long season and hundreds of games, meaning there are countless opportunities to find value.

This macro baseball betting strategy makes it easier to generate consistent profits over the long term since it minimizes the impact of bad beats or losing streaks. It also enables you to capitalize on changes in lines or odds as the games approach.

That said, with so many teams, matchups, and variables, you probably won’t want to bet on every team. There simply aren’t enough hours in the day to properly research each team. Instead, you should focus your analysis on ten or fewer teams whom you will center your volume betting strategy around.

3. Bet On The Dog And Look For Trap Games

If something seems too good to be true, it probably is. In sports gambling, bettors need to be wary of the trap game.

A trap game typically involves a high-ranked team playing against a lesser opponent. Both the public and the team’s recent performance says that they should easily win. But for whatever reason (e.g. overlooking the opponent, traveling fatigue, distractions, pitching matchups, etc.) the underdog comes out ahead.

Generally speaking — trap game or not — there’s no significant value in betting the clear favorite, especially betting the moneyline. Baseball is a volatile sport, after all. Anyone can win. And the payout will rarely justify the potential risk over time.

That said, if you feel a game or a line is a trap, you can take advantage of this by fading the public and betting the run line (or even the moneyline, if you’re feeling lucky) on the underdog.

The Smart Money Is On Tipico

There are dozens of MLB betting strategies seasoned bettors use to improve their odds.

With so much data and analysis available, it can be tempting to immediately dive deep into the metrics to try and gain an edge. However, it’s important to remember that the most successful bettors often begin with the sturdy foundations of the basic strategies discussed above. If you want to learn more about the ins and outs, make sure to read about MLB betting systems.

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