Betting Basics

Best NFL Betting Strategy

August 22, 2023

If you want to be an NFL bettor, then having an NFL betting strategy is essential. Learn more about the top strategies for betting success.

When it comes to betting on the National Football League, there’s no one best way to bet on an NFL game. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t strategies you can utilize to maximize your chances of ending the season with more money than you started with.

With that in mind, this NFL betting guide can help you refine your NFL betting system and provide betting tips as we enter into the 2022–2023 season. Your specific strategy will, of course, be dependent on your research and instincts, but this guide can act as your safety as the season progresses and the NFL odds change. If you’re looking to learn more about the league going into this next season, consider checking out our guides on the most NFL playoff wins by team and NFL same game parlays so that you can go into the season confidently.


#1 Decide on Your Parameters Before Placing Any Bets

Your betting strategy should begin before you look at any individual NFL games or matchups. Before you dig into NFL football or any other sports bet, you need to consider something closer to home: your bank account.

Sports betting is a great way to add to the excitement of the NFL season and potentially win some money, but it shouldn’t be something that impacts your finances in any serious way. Even bettors with the best NFL betting systems can’t guarantee victory. That means you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

Once you decide how much that is, it will serve as your bankroll. There are many ways you can dole out your bankroll, including:

  • Creating a weekly bankroll
  • Creating a monthly bankroll
  • Creating a full-season bankroll
  • Splitting the season into increments (½, ⅓, etc.) and having a bankroll for each segment

Any NFL betting system can work so long as you stick to your bankroll. If you give yourself a full season bankroll of $3,000 and you end up losing it by week 8, that’s it for your football betting season. Hopefully, you’ll end the season with more in your bankroll than you started with, but having a set limit makes sure you don’t do any lasting damage to your finances.

#2 Diversify Your Bets

Now that we’ve covered the financial literacy element of sports betting, what’s a good NFL betting strategy? When coming up with a winning bet, much like your investment portfolio, diversity can be your friend.

What do we mean when we talk about diversity? When betting on a sport, and especially NFL betting, you can often make many different types of bets. Whether you want to make a moneyline bet, player prop bets, NFL point spread bet, or parlay bet, you can take advantage of having a diverse sports betting system. Be sure to familiarize yourself with your options, then spread your money out accordingly.

An example of a diversified strategy may include:

  • Putting a small amount of your bankroll into early futures bets. These bets won’t pay until the end of the season, and many likely won’t pay out at all, but if you do hit on a couple, it could mean big money.
  • Focusing most of your weekly bankroll on moneyline odds, point spread, and totals bets. For games you have a good feel for, hit the moneyline or the spread (whichever has better betting odds in your opinion). Games you have less of a feel for may be good places to bet the over or under.
  • Looking into parlays or teasers if you want some high-risk, high-reward options. Just be wary of falling in love with these types of bets. The payouts can be intoxicating, but they tend to lose more often than they hit.
  • Live betting, if you have some extra cash in your bankroll. Live betting allows you to get a feel for the game as it’s happening. The payouts may be smaller, but with more information about how the game is going, you may be more likely to pick winners.

#3 Consider Home Field

Is home field advantage for an NFL team real? Looking at the stats…kinda.

Home teams do win more often. In 2021, they won around 52% of the time. However, they only covered the spread 48% of the time. Neither of these are major margins, but even a few percentage points can mean the difference between a winning and a losing betting system .

So what does this mean for you? When making an NFL bet, pay attention to home field advantage. If you’re betting NFL moneyline odds, favor the home team. If you’re betting point spread, you may find value in the underdog.

However, keep in mind home field can only do so much. The better team is still likely going to come out on top, no matter where the game is played.

#4 Take Injuries Into Account

The regular season in the NFL is often a war of attrition. Throughout the season, sports bettors will see NFL odds change as injuries occur. The nature of the game assures that every team will deal with injuries in one way or another. And while some teams adapt better than others (Bill Belicheck’s and the New England Patriots’ seemingly constantly piecemeal secondary is an example of good adaptation), sometimes injuries become too much to overcome. The best bets will take injuries into account.

A couple of things to monitor when it comes to injuries include:

  • Injuries to QBs – The quarterback is the most important position in football. Any major QB injury can derail a season.
  • Injuries to multiple players in the same unit – If an offensive lineman gets hurt, most teams can work around it. If multiple linemen get hurt, suddenly the QB may be scrambling for their lives. Multiple injuries in one unit can completely shift a team’s ability to implement its game plan.

#5 Don’t Chase

While we all want to hit that winning bet, part of good NFL betting strategies means you don’t chase. There hasn’t been an undefeated team in the NFL since 1972. There hasn’t been an undefeated NFL bettor since…well, we don’t know of any.

We all take bad beats, have bad weeks, and sometimes even have bad years. The key is to accept this fact and avoid the temptation to throw good money after bad in an attempt to even the scales.

Betting doesn’t work that way.

Remember the #1 rule: Stick to your bankroll.

And stick to your strategy. Losses hurt in the short term, but to avoid long-term anguish you must bet intelligently, not emotionally.

NFL Action Kicks Off at Tipico

The final part of your betting strategy should be to find the best NFL sportsbook available. Thankfully, we’ve got you covered at Tipico with our quick and easy betting site.

Once your strategy is set, put it into action at Tipico. From player props to live odds, Tipico’s online sportsbook meets all your NFL needs for the upcoming season.

Is sports betting legal in Colorado? Discover our guide discussing why sports betting is legal in Colorado, the rules and regulations, and how to bet effectively.

Tipico Sportsbook supports responsible gaming year-round; learn more and find resources at the AGA’s “Have a Game Plan“.

Tipico staff contributions