Game Plan: NFL Week 10 Preview and Best Bets

We’re officially past the halfway point of the regular season, so the AFC and NFC playoff races are beginning to take shape.

November 7, 2023

Week 10 will feature 28 of the 32 NFL teams in action, with the Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, and Rams on bye. We’re officially past the halfway point of the regular season, so the AFC and NFC playoff races are beginning to take shape. Below are the top spread, moneyline, or point total bets found on Tipico Sportsbook for each Week 10 NFL game:

Panthers at Bears (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT)

Best Bet: Under 39.5 points (-108)

Chicago has scored 21 or more points twice in six games started by Justin Fields and once in three games started by Tyson Bagent, so this is a low-octane offense regardless of Fields’ (thumb) availability. The Panthers are averaging just 16.1 points game started by Bryce Young, and both teams could be extra conservative in their play calling after their rookie quarterbacks threw three interceptions apiece in Week 9.

Colts vs. Patriots (Sunday, 9:30 a.m.)

Best Bet: Colts moneyline (-120)

Carolina’s passing game didn’t have the talent or quality quarterback play to capitalize on the Colts’ defensive struggles, and the Patriots could have the same problem in Frankfurt. New England quarterback Mac Jones could be playing his way out of a starting job, as he tied his season low with 5.0 yards per attempt in last week’s loss to Washington and threw his league-worst ninth interception with the game on the line.

Texans at Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Over 46.5 points (-112)

These are two of the six worst rushing offenses by yards per game, so rather than keeping the clock running with handoffs, both teams will likely go with pass-heavy approaches. Signal callers Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud are both adept at pushing the ball downfield to their big-play receivers, so look for a shootout similar to Houston’s thrilling 39-37 win over the Buccaneers last week. Stroud threw for a rookie record 470 yards in that game, and Burrow is also coming off a season high in passing yards (348 vs. Buffalo).

Titans at Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Buccaneers moneyline (-115)

…the Titans don’t have the weapons to exploit the Bucs’ weak secondary like Stroud and the Texans did.

Tennessee has dropped eight straight games away from home, and whether it’s Will Levis or Ryan Tannehill (ankle) under center, the Titans don’t have the weapons to exploit the Bucs’ weak secondary like Stroud and the Texans did. Getting star rusher Derrick Henry going won’t be easy against Tampa Bay’s stout front seven, while the Titans’ shaky secondary will have a hard time limiting standout pass catchers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Saints at Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Vikings moneyline (+120)

Joshua Dobbs led the Vikings to a fourth consecutive victory last week without even knowing the offense or his teammates’ names; imagine what the trade deadline acquisition will be able to do with a full week of practice under his belt. Stylistically, Dobbs’ mobility will likely trouble a Saints defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and the Vikings could be getting star wide receiver Justin Jefferson (hamstring) back from IR to boot.

49ers at Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Jaguars moneyline (+135)

San Francisco was in free fall before its Week 9 bye, losing three straight after a 5-0 start. Jacksonville was also on bye in Week 9, and the Jaguars have won five in a row. Given recent results, the 6-2 Jacksonville team makes for an appealing home underdog against its 5-3 opponent, and the Jaguars +3 spread (-110) is also a strong bet if you’re feeling more risk-averse.

Browns at Ravens (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Over 38.5 points (-112)

This battle between two of the league’s three stingiest scoring defenses naturally invited a low line, but there’s enough offensive talent here to surpass the modest total of 38.5 points. Baltimore has topped 30 points in each of its last three games with Lamar Jackson getting comfortable in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s scheme, while Cleveland has averaged 27.8 points per game in the five games started by Deshaun Watson — who returned from a shoulder injury last week. Watson missed Cleveland’s 28-3 Week 4 home loss to Baltimore.

Packers at Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Steelers moneyline (-160)

Mike Tomlin’s Steelers know how to win close games, with a 5-0 record in one-score games and three double-digit losses. Green Bay doesn’t have the talent to blow Pittsburgh out, and the Steelers’ pass rush is likely to force numerous mistakes out of struggling Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who had eight interceptions in the five games preceding last week’s win over the Rams. In that contest, the Packers didn’t have to take any chances once it became apparent that backup Rams backup Brett Rypien was far worse than even Love.

Falcons at Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m.)

Best Bet: Cardinals moneyline (-105)

In an unusual turn, the Cardinals should actually have the edge under center to go with homefield advantage in Week 9. Kyler Murray (knee) will make his season debut against a Falcons team that didn’t get its desired result after benching Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke in last week’s loss to the Vikings — that was Atlanta’s fifth loss in the past seven games.

Lions at Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m.) 

Best Bet: Lions moneyline (-125)

The 6-2 Lions have found ways to win games this season, while the 4-4 Chargers have often found ways to lose them. Detroit will also have a clear edge in freshness, as the Lions are coming off a bye while the Chargers played on Monday Night Football in Week 9.

Commanders at Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)

Best Bet: Commanders +6.5 (-112)


This spread seems a little large considering the Seahawks are coming off a 37-3 road drubbing at the hands of the Ravens. Seattle is 3-1 at home this season but has just a plus-7 point differential across those four games, with a loss to the Rams and wins over Andy Dalton’s Panthers, Joshua Dobbs’ Cardinals, and PJ Walker’s Browns. Coming off back-to-back games with over 300 passing yards, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is arguably better than any of the quarterbacks Seattle has beaten at home thus far, and Seattle’s Geno Smith has a 4:6 TD:INT ratio over his last four games.

Giants at Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)

Best Bet: Giants +16.5 (-110)

Dallas beat the Giants 40-0 earlier this season and New York is down to its third-string quarterback, Tommy DeVito. Even so, 16.5 points is still a lot. The Giants were similar underdogs in Buffalo in Week 6, and they easily covered on that occasion. After being embarrassed by their NFC East rivals in the season opener, this game will be a matter of pride for the Giants, and a heavy mix of star running back Saquon Barkley and inspired defense can keep this within two scores.

Jets at Raiders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)

Best Bet: Under 36 points (-110)

Vegas gave up just six points in the first game under interim coach Antonio Pierce last week, and both teams are used to low-scoring games. The Raiders have scored more than 18 points only twice through nine games, while the Jets’ 16.5 points-per-game is the third-lowest mark in the NFL.

…Buffalo’s averaging only 20.2 points in its last five games, so the Bills could have a hard time pulling away in this one.

Broncos at Bills (Monday, 8:15 p.m.)

Best Bet: Broncos +7.5 (-112)

Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games, while the Broncos were trending in the right direction prior to their Week 9 bye. After beating the Packers in Week 7, Denver snapped a 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs with a 24-9 victory. Denver’s defense has allowed just 15.0 points per game in its last three games after a dreadful start, while Buffalo’s averaging only 20.2 points in its last five games, so the Bills could have a hard time pulling away in this Week 10 matchup.

Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha Yodashkin has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.