Game Plan: NFL Week 11 Preview and Best Bets

Two AFC North battles and a Super Bowl rematch headline the week.

November 14, 2023

Week 11 action will include 28 of the 32 NFL teams, with the Colts, Falcons, Patriots, and Saints on bye. On paper, there is a higher frequency of lopsided matchups this week compared to the most recent slates we’ve seen. That begs the question: can some of the Week 11 underdogs cover the spread, or even win outright? Below are the top spread, moneyline, or point total bets currently found on Tipico Sportsbook for each Week 11 NFL game:

Bengals at Ravens (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT)

Best Bet: Bengals +3.5 (-110)

Cincinnati has had the recent edge in this AFC North rivalry. Including the playoffs, the Bengals have won four of the last six meetings between these teams, with both of Baltimore’s wins coming by three points or fewer. The Ravens won 27-24 in Week 2 when Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was visibly hampered by a calf injury, and with Burrow back to full health, Cincinnati should cover for a seventh consecutive meeting between these two. Both teams were upset at home last week and will be looking to bounce back.

Bears at Lions (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Under 47 points (-112)

The Lions scored 41 points against the Chargers in sunny Los Angeles last week, but this is likely to be more of a grind. After piling up 200 yards and three TDs on the ground in LA, Detroit will find running room much harder to come by against a Bears defense that’s allowing just 76.0 rushing yards per game this season — the second-best mark in the league. Meanwhile, Detroit is allowing 79.1 rushing yards per game — third-fewest in the league — and neither Tyson Bagent nor Justin Fields (thumb) have proven capable of moving Chicago’s offense effectively through the air.

Chargers at Packers (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Under 44 points (-110)

Just like the Lions, the Chargers will likely see a decline in offense as they shift from Los Angeles to the cold midwestern weather in Green Bay. The Packers’ last five games have averaged just 33.0 combined points, and Green Bay hasn’t scored more than 20 since Week 2.

Pittsburgh is 26-6-1 against the Browns under coach Mike Tomlin.

Steelers at Browns (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Steelers +4 (-110)

Pittsburgh has already defeated the Browns with Deshaun Watson under center this season. That victory moved the Steelers to 4-1 in their last five against Cleveland, and Pittsburgh is 26-6-1 against the Browns under coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are also 6-0 in one-score games this season, so the Pittsburgh moneyline at +170 is also a tempting bet.

Titans at Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Jaguars -6.5 (-112)

Jacksonville will be motivated to right the ship after being blown out at home by the 49ers last week, and Tennessee is the perfect opponent for such a task. The Titans have lost their last nine games away from home, and if Tennessee fails to get Derrick Henry going against a Jaguars defense that’s allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (86.4), this one could get ugly fast for the visitors, as rookie QB Will Levis has a 0:2 TD:INT over his last two starts.

Raiders at Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Over 47.5 points (-112)

Miami has averaged 43.5 points per game in four home games this season, so the Dolphins should get most of the way to this total on their own, especially with rookie running back De’Von Achane (knee) potentially ready to return to add even more speed to an offense that also features Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert. The Raiders will have trouble keeping pace with the Dolphins, but playmakers Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs should help the visitors put up some points in the offense-friendly South Florida conditions.

New York’s 7-2-1 in its last 10 against Washington, including a 14-7 Week 7 win with Tyrod Taylor under center.

Giants at Commanders (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Giants moneyline (+360)

The Giants +10 spread (-112) is a safer bet, but the moneyline has more value given the one-sidedness of this rivalry in recent years. New York’s 7-2-1 in its last 10 against Washington, including a 14-7 Week 7 win with Tyrod Taylor (ribs) under center. Third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito is a downgrade from the backup Taylor, but a Commanders defense that traded a pair of starting defensive linemen at the trade deadline will have a hard time slowing down star rusher Saquon Barkley.

Cardinals at Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Texans moneyline (-200)

Houston has won its last three home games and is 5-2 in its last seven overall, as quarterback C.J. Stroud has quickly developed into a potential MVP candidate. Even with Kyler Murray back under center for Arizona, there’s little reason the Texans should lose at home against the 2-8 Cardinals.

Cowboys at Panthers (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Best Bet: Panthers +10.5 (-108)

Dallas is a juggernaut at home, but the Cowboys’ road results have been lacking. They are just 2-3 on the road and have been outscored 115-109, including a loss in Arizona after the Cowboys came in as even heavier favorites than they are this week. Carolina will continue to play hard as it develops rookie quarterback Bryce Young, especially since the Panthers don’t own their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and a close game is certainly on the table given the Cowboys’ road struggles.

Buccaneers at 49ers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m.)

Best Bet: 49ers -11.5 (-108)

After having a chance to heal up and reset during their Week 9 bye, the 49ers looked like the team that started 5-0 rather than the one that then lost three in a row in their 34-3 Week 10 shellacking of the Jaguars. Five of San Francisco’s six wins have come by at least 18 points, so covering 11.5 shouldn’t be too tough at home against the 4-5 Buccaneers, with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all available for the hosts.

Seahawks at Rams (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)

Best Bet: Seahawks moneyline (-115)

The Rams won 30-13 at Seattle in Week 1, but Los Angeles will be without starting running back Kyren Williams (ankle) for this rematch. More importantly, there are questions about quarterback Matthew Stafford, who will be playing but may be hampered by the finger injury that caused him to miss LA’s last game before a Week 10 bye. The 6-3 Seahawks are both better and healthier than the 3-6 Rams, so Seattle should find a way to salvage a season split here.

That was the sixth consecutive game in which betting against the Bills’ spread was the winning move…

Jets at Bills (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)

Best Bet: Jets +7.5 (-115)

Buffalo never looked particularly close to covering as a 7.5-point home favorite last week against the Broncos and ended up losing outright. That was the sixth consecutive game in which betting against the Bills’ spread was the winning move, and that streak has a good chance of continuing against a Jets team that has already beaten Buffalo once this season.

Vikings at Broncos (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)

Best Bet: Vikings moneyline (+120)

Denver has beaten the Chiefs and Bills in its last two games, but Patrick Mahomes had the flu for KC, and the Bills did everything they could to lose Monday, turning the ball over four times before giving Wil Lutz a second chance at a game-winning field goal after being flagged for having 12 men on the field. The Vikings are rolling into town on a five-game winning streak, and Minnesota has a plus-24 point differential this season, while Denver’s at minus-52.

Eagles at Chiefs (Monday, 8:15 p.m.)

Best Bet: Under 46 points (-112)

Stops were hard to come by on the slick turf at Super Bowl LVII, but both pass rushes, and thus both defensive units, should find significantly more success in this rematch nine months later. Kansas City has the NFL’s second-best scoring defense at 15.9 points per game, but the Chiefs’ lack of production from wide receivers will make it tough to exploit Philadelphia’s vulnerable secondary, while running effectively is nearly impossible against a stout Eagles front that’s allowing a league-low 66.3 rushing yards per game.

Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha Yodashkin has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.