NFL

Super Bowl LVIII Game Preview and Best Bets

Our Super Bowl preview recommends three best bet options — and none of them involve the moneyline or spread.

February 5, 2024

The end of this NFL season is near as the Kansas City Chiefs will face the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday, Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Below is a preview of Super Bowl LVIII, along with the top bets found on Tipico Sportsbook among the spread, moneyline, point total, game props, and player props.

49ers vs. Chiefs (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST)

Moneyline: 49ers (-130); Chiefs (+110)

Spread: 49ers -2 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 47.5 points (-110)

Kansas City is in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the past five seasons. The Chiefs went 2-1 in their previous three trips to the Big Game, including a 31-20 win over the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. After an 11-6 regular season, the Chiefs defeated the Dolphins 26-7 at Arrowhead Stadium, earned a 27-24 road win in Buffalo, and finally a 17-10 road win in Baltimore to emerge as the AFC’s Super Bowl representative.

San Francisco is in the Super Bowl for the second time in the Kyle Shanahan era, and this is the fourth time in the past five seasons that the 49ers have reached at least the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a bye for the Wild Card round with a 12-5 regular season. San Francisco then defeated the Packers 24-21 in the divisional round and beat the Lions 34-31 in the NFC Championship Game to reach the Super Bowl, winning both playoff games in comeback fashion.

Road to the Super Bowl: What Can We Learn from KC and SF’s Seasons?

Both teams were elite defensively in the regular season, as the Chiefs allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.3) while the 49ers gave up the third-fewest (17.5). San Francisco also ranked third offensively with 28.9 points per game, with second-year quarterback Brock Purdy and stud running back Christian McCaffrey both posting standout statistical seasons.

If you’re backing the Chiefs, it’d make sense to bet on the moneyline with such a spread, but we think the better bets lie elsewhere…

Purdy led the league in yards per pass attempt (9.6) and touchdown percentage (7.0), while McCaffrey topped  the league with 1,459 rushing yards and tied for the NFL lead with 21 scrimmage touchdowns.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes took a step back statistically in 2023 after leading the NFL with 5,250 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns en route to winning MVP in 2022, but he has stepped it up in the playoffs with a tidy 4:0 TD:INT ratio.

The game has a small spread — the 49ers are still favored by just two points (-2) as of this writing — and should be a close contest. If you’re backing the Chiefs, it’d make sense to bet on the moneyline with such a spread, but we think the better bets lie elsewhere:

Best Bet #1: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)

Kelce has been held without a touchdown only once in nine playoff games over the past three postseasons. Three of Mahomes’ four touchdown passes this postseason have gone to Kelce, and the star tight end also found the end zone against the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.

Best Bet #2: Christian McCaffrey Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-125) 

McCaffrey has rushed for 90-plus yards in both games this postseason, giving him over 88.5 rushing yards in 11 of 18 appearances overall this season, including seven of the past eight contests. Kansas City is far more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, as the Chiefs allowed 4.6 yards per carry to running backs in the regular season, and the 49ers will likely go with a heavy dose of McCaffrey early to help Purdy settle his nerves.

 

Best Bet #3: Under 47.5 Points (-110)

Both teams have plenty of big names on offense, but their defenses have led the way. Kansas City has given up just 13.7 points per game this postseason after limiting opponents to an average of 17.3 points in the regular season. That strong defensive play has been necessary, as the Chiefs have scored an average of 23.3 points during this playoff run – a rather pedestrian mark.

San Francisco’s defense struggled early against the Lions, but has been strong outside of the poor first half against Detroit, allowing just 31 points in three other playoff halves. This follows a strong regular season in which the unit limited opponents to 17.5 points per contest.

Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha Yodashkin has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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