We’re just days away from Super Bowl LVIII and the energy is already high. Las Vegas will play host, which brings an extra level of excitement in and of itself. And yes, it seems as if Taylor Swift will be in attendance at the game following a concert in Tokyo, if you believe the Embassy of Japan.
The storylines are juicy, as well. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs look to further solidify their legacy as a dynasty as they try to repeat as Super Bowl champs. The 49ers have been knocking on the door for years under coach Kyle Shanahan, and they might just have the weapons to get it done this year. Can Brock Purdy outduel Mahomes? Which stingy defense will waver when it matters most?
With so much on the line, here are some of the best bets and props to keep an eye on, with odds pulled from Tipico Sportsbook. This one will also come with a nod for the Swifties among us, and let’s be serious, that’s all of us.
First Team to Score
Kansas City Chiefs +100
The Chiefs scored first in two of their three postseason games so far. Meanwhile, the 49ers have started slow in their two contests, needing to rally from major deficits in the second half in each. Take the plus money.
Team Total Touchdowns for Kansas City Chiefs
Over 2.5 -117
I’m on the Chiefs overall in this matchup, so we’ll keep the trend of betting Mahomes and company to stay hot in the postseason. The 49ers gave up two touchdowns to the Packers and four to the Lions. The combination of Isiah Pacheco on the ground and Mahomes through the air should get us there.
Team to Score Longest Field Goal
Kansas City Chiefs -125
The game may very well come down to the foot of Harrison Butker, who Andy Reid has no problem trotting out from 55+. He’s only missed three field goals in his last four postseason trips. He even hit a 62-yarder in the 2022 regular season. Niners kicker Jake Moody missed a 48-yard attempt in the NFC Championship game, so Shanahan may be more likely to leave the offense on the field instead of electing to go for a long field-goal attempt.
Position of MVP
Tight End (+900)
From a historical perspective, you’re better off lighting your money on fire, as no tight end has taken home the Super Bowl MVP before. But, this is a nice bet to place without giving up much value in terms of accurately predicting the winning team.
In addition, it’s hard to imagine a much better duo at the position than George Kittle and Travis Kelce making history. Kelce has been on an excellent run during the postseason (more on that soon), while Kittle has topped 100 receiving yards or scored at least one touchdown in seven of his 19 games this season.
Team to Score the Longest Touchdown
San Francisco 49ers (-130)
This one is pretty clear from the regular season stats and continuing postseason trends. The 49ers led the NFL in passing plays of both 20+ and 40+ yard passing yards and also bested the Chiefs in explosive running plays. Despite playing one fewer postseason contest, the 49ers have long touchdowns of 39 and 32 yards. In contrast, Kansas City’s longest score went for 22 yards with the next-longest being 19.
Taylor Swift + @Tipico = Swift Specials 🤑
If you haven’t checked out the boosts that Tipico does every single day, this weekend is the perfect time to jump in!
— Matt Fontana Show (@MattFontanaShow) February 8, 2024
Travis Kelce is inspiring all sorts of storylines heading into this one. His play on the field speaks for itself, but it’s his relationship with megastar Taylor Swift that is getting just as much (OK, more) attention. Tipico Sportsbook is serving up some juicy Swift Specials to get in on the action. Let’s take a deep dive through the best bets in that mix, shall we?
Taylor’s Version: Travis Kelce to Record 5+ Receptions & 50+ Rec Yds, Chiefs to Win
If you like the Chiefs to win, you’ll love this bet. Kelce’s props are set at 6.5 receptions and 70.5 yards, respectively, so there’s a significant shave off those marks in exchange for a Chiefs win and some extra juice. But, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Chiefs win and Kelce doesn’t hit this stat line. It doesn’t matter that the 49ers defense will key in on him. The Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens all did the same, yet he still grabbed seven, five and 11 receptions, respectively, in those Chiefs wins.
Feeling 22: Chiefs to Score 22+ Pts
This correlates nicely with the Chiefs Team Total Touchdowns bet above, and some of our other best bets. If Mahomes throws for two touchdowns, Pacheco punches in another, and Butker kicks at least one field goal – we’re there. Seems almost too easy, but inevitably the 49ers defense will make us sweat this out.
Anti-Hero: Brock Purdy to Win MVP & 49ers to Win
We’ve clearly had a theme to this point, but if you disagree with the analysis and are backing the 49ers, this is an excellent pick. Purdy has balled out all year, and he made some big plays to help his team come from behind to win both their playoff games so far.
Critics will argue he is propped up by an exceptional supporting cast, and while there’s no doubting that, he’s made the plays he’s needed to make to give that cast a chance to succeed. That’s the DNA of an MVP quarterback in the Super Bowl.
He’ll need to do it again if he hopes to best Mahomes, and if he does, the MVP is his. History is also on our side, as six of the last 10, and 10 of the last 15 MVPs of the big game have been the winning quarterback.
Another special section of Tipico’s offerings is the “records” section, which sets odds on individual players having record-breaking performances in the big game. By definition, these are unlikely to hit, but if a historical event occurs, why not take advantage and cash in big time? Check out all the odds, but we’ll highlight some of our favorites here.
Total TDs record broken: Any player to score 4+ touchdowns (+2500)
Rushing TDs record broken: any player to record 4+ rushing touchdowns (+3500)
We’d need a high-scoring affair for either of these bets to hit, but touches should be concentrated out of each team’s backfield. During the regular season, Christian McCaffrey led the league with 70 rushing attempts inside the red zone and third with 21 attempts inside the five. Similarly, Isiah Pacheco finished fifth with 58 red zone rushes and tied for 13th with 13 attempts inside the five.
If we were to pick an individual player (not a required condition of the bet), McCaffrey would be the obvious choice. He scored four total touchdowns in Week 4 against the Cardinals, while the 49ers put up only 35 total points. He also scored three total touchdowns in the San Francisco’s rematch against Arizona in Week 14.
The Chiefs’ defense is much stronger than Arizona’s, but McCaffrey is one of the better skill-position players in the league. If the offense moves effectively, he’s likely to be relied upon to punch the ball into the end zone. He’s done so twice in each postseason contest.
Pass Completions Record Broken: Any player to record 44+ pass completions (+1500)
Pass Attempts Record Broken: Any player to record 63+ pass attempts (+2500)
Despite these two teams’ reputations, they play at a relatively neutral, and perhaps even slow, pace. That makes these records relatively unlike to fall, but we have two very accurate passers in this contest in Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes. Purdy finished fourth in the league in adjusted completion percentage (69.8 percent) and Mahomes ninth (67.2 percent). If one team falls behind, they are unlikely to pull any punches given the nature of the game and take to the air. Given the aforementioned accuracy of each passer involved, it’s particularly possible the completion record could fall.
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