Player Props for the Top NFL Earners 

Just before the 2023 NFL regular season kicked off, we saw massive extensions signed by Joe Burrow and Nick Bosa. Burrow became the highest-paid player in the league by average annual value (AAV), topping the likes of Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson – both of whom signed deals in the offseason. Let's look at their deals and some of the other biggest contracts in the league, to go along with related player props available on Tipico.

Quarterbacks

Despite several deals getting done since he inked his contract, Patrick Mahomes still owns the most lucrative contract in the league, with a total value of $450 million across 10 years.

As crazy as it sounds, that was something of a hometown discount as his AAV is now only the eighth highest. In three seasons since he signed the deal, he’s led the Chiefs to two Super Bowl appearances (one victory) and an AFC Conference Championship Game appearance. He also won the MVP award in 2022.

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It’s hard to argue with those results. Given that, it’s only right we go big when looking at potential props, as Mahomes is +400 to lead the league in passing yards at the end of the regular season. That will likely depend on Travis Kelce’s (knee) health, though Mahomes will be aided by the slow starts of Josh Allen and Joe Burrow in Week 1.

With that, we circle back to Burrow. It’s hardly an exaggeration to say he’s singlehandedly changed the fortunes of the Bengals organization. In two full seasons as the starter, he’s led the team to the Super Bowl and the AFC Championship Game.

Prior to his arrival, Cincinnati hadn’t won a playoff game since 1990. He doesn’t have the same personal accolades as Mahomes, but we should still count on a bounceback performance this week after a disastrous Week 1 against the Browns. He’s currently -160 to throw over 1.5 touchdowns this Sunday against Baltimore.

Just over a month before Burrow got his deal done, Chargers QB Herbert signed a five-year extension worth $262.5 million. He hasn’t had the same personal or team success as Mahomes or Burrow, but he has 95 passing touchdowns in 50 games.

Herbert took a step back in his several statistical areas in 2022, but there’s no doubt he can be one of the elite quarterbacks in the league.

He's in for a massive game against Tennessee in Week 2. The Titans boast a pass-funnel defense, which should lead to a big performance. Herbert's current prop for yards is set at a hefty 283.5 yards (-105), but the over is still a good option considering Derek Carr lit up the Titans’ secondary for 305 yards in Week 1.

Lamar Jackson had very public negotiations for an extension in Baltimore, and for some time his future with the team was in question. Both parties managed to set their differences aside however, and ultimately put pen to paper on a five-year, $260 million contract.

Jackson offers more of an all-around skillset than the other quarterbacks on this list, except for Mahomes. The Ravens may need to rely on that more than ever after Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins went down an Achilles injury in Week 1.

Looking to the props, Jackson’s over/under rushing total currently sits at 46.5 with the over at -115 heading into a matchup against Cincinnati. The Bengals allowed Deshaun Watson to pick up 45 yards on the ground, and Jackson is more dynamic with his legs.

Looking ahead, we should project at least three more massive quarterback contracts to get done. Despite the narratives, Tua Tagovailoa has been extremely productive with coach Mike McDaniel. Assuming Tagovailoa can stay healthy this year, he should get a nice extension done to stay in Miami as he’s currently set to hit free agency in 2025.

Drafted one year later, Trevor Lawrence has already proven he’s the real deal in Jacksonville. While his results haven’t quite matched those of Burrow, he’s made the Jaguars far more competitive and has given a relatively dormant franchise some hope.

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Another quarterback who seems to get a lot of unfair criticism is Dak Prescott. Unlike the rest of these quarterbacks, he’s already gotten one extension, which runs through 2024, and should be in line for another this offseason.

Other Skill Position Players  

The running back market has been depressed for several seasons, meaning most of the skill position players with the largest contracts are wide receivers. The most recent batch of big deals came in 2022, and included big names such as Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs.

Hill has the highest AAV of the group with a mark of $25.5 million, and he showed his worth with a massive 215-yard, two touchdown performance in a win over the Chargers in Week 1.

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He may find less room to roam in Week 2 against the Patriots, but he should still be in for an excellent season. Hill currently has the shortest odds for both AP Offensive Player of the Year (+800) and most receiving yards this season (+330).

It may be a tough sell to see Hill beat out Justin Jefferson in yardage, but if Hill can match his 15-touchdown season from 2020, he could take home the hardware as the best offensive player in the league.

Adams signed his five-year $140 million contract after being traded from Green Bay to Las Vegas. Even with mediocre quarterback play, he’s remained an excellent contributor for the Raiders and has averaged 87.9 receiving yards across 18 games with his new team. 

He’ll face a Week 2 matchup against the Bills and will square off against Diggs. Adams’ current over/under yardage total for the game is 72.5 (-115), a mark he’s topped 11 times in that same 18-game span.

While we’re focused on that matchup, let’s turn our attention to Diggs. There have been rumors of his discontent in Buffalo, but he’s shown great rapport with quarterback Josh Allen. Despite a terrible team performance, Diggs held up his end of the deal in Week 1 with a 102-yard, one touchdown performance against the Jets.

The Vegas secondary leaves plenty to be desired, so he should be in line for another nice game. His yardage total is 75.5 (-115), which feels like a good mark to take the over on, based on the matchup.

Looking ahead, Justin Jefferson will reset the entire wide receiver market once his deal gets done with the Vikings. There have been murmurs of negotiations, and there’s no doubt a deal will get done, it’s just a matter of when.

Calvin Ridley looked like he may be out of the NFL, but instead he’s provided a huge boost to the Jaguars receiving corps. He’s set to hit free agency after the season and is earning himself a nice pay day. Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans and Marquise Brown are also set to hit the open market, so it should be a fun position group to watch this offseason.

Defensive Players

The Bosa brothers have dominated opposing quarterbacks since entering the NFL, and they’ve also done a good job negotiating new contracts. Nick Bosa just shattered the record for both total value and AAV of a defensive contract. He won Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 and currently has +800 odds to lead the league in sacks.

Joey got his extension with the Chargers in 2020 and has the second-highest overall contract value among defensive players. He battled injuries last year but has reached double-digit sacks in four of his seven full seasons.

We can’t leave the conversation without talking about Aaron Donald. His overall deal pales in comparison to the Bosas, but his $31.7 AAV is second-best to only Nick Bosa. Donald’s accolades are undeniable, as he’s a seven-time All-Pro and won the AP Defensive Player of the Year three times.

Finally, we have T.J. Watt, who is the current frontrunner to lead the league in sacks (+570). He reset the defensive end market prior to the Bosa deal, and he’s proven his value to the Steelers as the team is just 1-10 in games he hasn’t played in since entering the league.

Photo credit: IMAGO / Zuma Wire